Published: 15/06/2022 By ECAPInvestors continued to push safe haven currencies yesterday, as bears remain cautious over the US inflation figures from Friday. GBPUSD briefly fell below the 1.20 mark for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic yesterday as investors favoured the USD but also partly amid talk of another Scottish Independence vote. This morning we've noted some resurgence from the pound as it sits around the high 1.20's at the time of writing, as investors now focus on tomorrows interest rate decision meeting.
Market expectations for tonights FOMC meeting have changed dramatically since Friday’s bumper US inflation report. Clearly the bar for a hawkish surprise at this evening’s FOMC meeting is now sky-high, and a 75 basis point hike alone may not even be enough to satisfy the dollar bulls. We believe that the Fed would have to strike an ultra-hawkish tone in order to trigger any additional dollar strength from current elevated levels. Anything less than a 75 basis point hike, and a firm indication that a similar move is coming in July, would likely trigger a dollar sell-off. A 50 basis point move, which analysts contend remains very much possible, would lead to a violent move lower in the greenback, in a concensus view.