Published: 07/08/2023 By ECAPThe British Pound entered the new week with almost a month’s worth of losses against a broadly stronger Dollar. In fact, the Pound to Dollar rate reversed more than 50% of its second quarter rally during the course of July. Looking forward, price action over the coming days will be a key determinant of whether the broader recovery from last year’s record low still has further to run, or if a deeper setback is in the pipeline.
The Euro is struggling to find a clear direction as chatters about the European Central Bank peak rates were triggered by the global rating agency Fitch Ratings as it said on Friday that the falling Eurozone inflation puts the ECB in a tight position. Further supporting the case, signs that the German economy is still struggling could prompt ECB policymakers to call a halt to its tightening cycle in September.
The U.S. dollar gained in early European trade this morning, rebounding from losses after Friday’s employment figures and ahead of this week’s release of inflation data. Looking back, the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in July, resulting in the dollar falling to a one-week low against a basket of currencies. With the Fed clearly looking at the incoming data ahead of September’s policy meeting, the attention now turns to Thursday’s U.S. inflation data for further guidance.